Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 998.339259 1141.881199 1306.214451 1509.920744 1757.957145 2053.175658 2.435715e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 779.156249 955.579009 1177.860772 1484.531243 1906.642257 2483.069532 3.359494e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 687.247602 879.686170 1137.129252 1518.029089 2088.219726 2948.206615 4.427805e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 629.387139 834.672167 1123.505098 1577.565705 2310.570511 3524.292186 5.885751e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 577.632152 788.005292 1096.315420 1606.014921 2483.797019 4063.325557 7.513790e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 527.891139 736.637664 1052.825803 1597.760480 2589.187817 4508.610682 9.175801e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 495.696895 706.997256 1037.512753 1631.186892 2773.404044 5161.832137 1.170191e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 451.157341 653.124114 976.093350 1573.198805 2768.742924 5414.184123 1.335207e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 414.765860 608.553012 924.710281 1524.924793 2772.308673 5686.112004 1.526517e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 382.300779 567.408051 874.661960 1471.612452 2753.819532 5899.624714 1.717118e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 372.634237 562.829026 886.988089 1539.802827 3017.157713 6943.286356 2.325044e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 359.245524 550.634726 884.202331 1576.982947 3218.237934 7907.782579 3.038030e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 342.630049 532.304322 869.789822 1591.256403 3377.001335 8857.909636 3.939715e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 322.723286 506.751620 839.614220 1567.921371 3436.370630 9527.372715 4.838496e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 311.676548 495.964984 836.246011 1603.097957 3663.839666 10944.540342 6.735626e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 304.581374 491.671438 844.936405 1667.314373 3995.477970 13030.829184 1.029333e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 294.541594 481.071324 839.820446 1697.893804 4237.428994 14948.224073 1.513898e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 281.608073 464.055111 819.910297 1689.016941 4352.380771 16369.259239 2.074345e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 273.682103 455.983301 817.812537 1725.003909 4631.736253 18971.471896 3.360756e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 258.075555 432.050661 780.004443 1662.582565 4547.496286 19377.974018 4.077729e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 244.500704 411.323987 747.579093 1610.659658 4490.584748 19950.402058 5.103479e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 231.465171 390.968608 714.551624 1553.363153 4401.244483 20266.167661 6.209407e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 229.292816 391.957176 728.351572 1626.658138 4842.023470 24973.611098 1.497690e+06